Anticipated Developments in Artificial Intelligence for 2024
Navigating the Currents of Artificial Intelligence: A Reflection on 2023 and Glimpses into 2024
Predicting the trajectory of artificial intelligence is a challenging feat, particularly in an industry marked by rapid evolution. As we stand on the verge of a new year, it's an opportune moment to contemplate the strides AI has taken over the last twelve months and envision what the future might hold for this transformative technology in 2024.
While 2023 undeniably marked a significant chapter for AI, the narrative often leaned towards fear and conjecture. The emergence of AI doomsayers, epitomized by voices like Eliezer Yudkowsky, dominated headlines, cautioning about existential threats posed by AI. Adding to the atmosphere of apprehension was a notable open letter from tech industry leaders, proposing a six-month hiatus on powerful AI research for a comprehensive risk assessment and safety protocol development.
However, halting the AI momentum seems unlikely in the near future. Even if it were politically feasible, it would be strategically unwise, potentially placing Western democracies at a disadvantage against global competitors like Russia and China. Notably, even those advocating for a pause, including signatories like Elon Musk, are forging ahead with their own AI initiatives. Musk's xAI company, for instance, recently introduced Grok, an AI chatbot. The doomism trend was further fueled by the "effective altruism" (EA) movement, which gained prominence in 2023. Despite its significant influence, the movement faced challenges, such as the controversial firing and rehiring of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and connections to cryptocurrency fraud.
Regardless of these dynamics, the legitimate risks associated with AI should not be dismissed. National security concerns loom large, encompassing cyber warfare, biological and chemical weapons development, and the evolution of information warfare through advanced propaganda and deepfakes. As biometric technologies integrate into daily life, issues once confined to Hollywood plots are becoming tangible realities.
A key battleground in the upcoming year will revolve around the dichotomy of open and closed AI systems. Interestingly, initially associated with openness, entities like OpenAI and Anthropic now embrace closed black-box models, while companies like Meta champion transparency. Regulatory decisions will be crucial in determining the dominance of opaque systems like ChatGPT versus transparent alternatives like Meta's LLaMa.
The European Union's impending AI Act illuminates the delicate balance policymakers must strike between oversight and innovation. Excessive regulation runs the risk of solidifying the dominance of Silicon Valley giants while stifling startups and open-source competitors. The fate of innovative AI companies, such as France's Mistral AI, hinges on fostering a competitive marketplace rather than legislating them out of existence.
In the United States, President Biden's recent executive order on AI sets the stage for forthcoming regulations in 2024, promising a shake-up in America's AI policy landscape. Debates on issues like bias and discrimination are expected, but more complex challenges related to copyright and intellectual property will also come to the forefront. The New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft, involving the use of articles to train AI algorithms, exemplifies these emerging legal and regulatory complexities.
Another point of contention will be the escalating energy consumption of the AI industry, akin to debates surrounding the environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining. The discourse on AI's energy use is poised to intensify as the competition for computing resources reaches new heights.
Despite these controversies, the hope for 2024 lies in a return to rationality and nuance in AI policy discussions. Both the United States and Europe have the potential to craft governance strategies that balance freedom with the advantages of AI. However, achieving this requires leaders to anchor discussions in facts and evidence, steering clear of unfounded emotions.
In the realm of artificial intelligence, where the stakes are monumental, 2024 holds the promise of a pivotal year as society grapples with the double-edged sword that AI represents.